Ahead of next months UK Budget several sources point to the likelihood of a further rise in the National Living Wage for example this from Panmure Liberum.

“Whilst it won’t be confirmed until the Budget, the rate for the National Living Wage looks set to increase by 5.4% from April 2026 according to the ASHE data released yesterday. The Low Pay Commission and govt can use their discretion to choose a different methodology for updating if they want – so this number from the ONS is a firm indicator, rather than a guarantee of what will be announced next month.”

If we do see this measure combined with, a further rise in Employers National Inurance Contributions, it will hit smaller businersses in the hospitalty and retail sectors, which are already struggling very hard indeed.