I spent a lot of yesterday looking at the sectors and industries that have outperformed the S&P 500 over the year to date what was very clear is that many of these outperforming groups have their roots in the old economy ( see table 1) rather than the new economies of software and technology. Many of which have been subject to concerns about increasing disruption by AI, and in particular new generations of LLMs and AI agents.
Morgan Stanley writes today that:
” We believe that, in 2026, Frontier LLMs will be able to perform most human tasks at or better than the level of a human expert. ”
And that
” We found that frontier models can complete GDP Val tasks roughly 100x faster and 100x
cheaper than industry experts.”
Sobering words indeed and ones that we will all have to take note of and come to terms with in the near future.
The US investment bank also kindly lists sectors and industries ( see table 2) that it thinks could provide defensive shelters against the coming disruption ,and more than a few of these also have their routes in the old economy as well I note.
The ground is shifting under our feet faster than the Moguls in the Olympic park and you may need to hold on to your nerve and your ( bank ) balance if you are to come through this unscathed.
