For better or worse, Christmas is now a season of intense shopping.
From ‘Black Friday’ in the States to ‘Double 11’ in China to ‘Boxing Day Sale’ in the UK – these special shopping festivals are there to tempt consumers to open their wallets and splash out on bargains.
Every year, these discounting programs are launched with great fanfare, which goes on to show how competitive retail is these days. Every dollar has to be fought over. In 2025, macro concerns are continuing to weigh on shoppers’ minds. Higher taxes, job prospects and inflation are some of the major factors deterring consumers from emptying their bank accounts.
Which retailers are doing well?
We wouldn’t know until their trading results are released. But it hasn’t stopped the market from guessing.
In the States, it appears Walmart (US:WMT) is expected to rack in higher profits as share prices surge to new highs this month.
TJX (US:TJX), the discounting retailer and owner of TK Maxx, is also advancing to record levels.
For Amazon (US:AMZN), prices did surge to fresh highs back in Autumn. But it is a ‘Big Tech’ after all. The trend here is tied to the rise and fall of AI. So its price trend is messier and not a total reflection of its retail business.
In the UK, Tesco (UK:TSCO) managed to conquer the 400p barrier earlier this year and stayed above this level. A period of consolidation around 400-450p is anticipated.
What about those luxury retailers?
LVMH (LVMUY) has staged a firm recovery in recent months following a period of sustained price declines. A further advance from here is needed to break the pattern of lower highs.
Richemont, the Swiss luxury group, is performing relatively better. Its US ADR is trading close to new all-time highs.
Ferrari (US:RACE), however, appears toppy. Resistance has hardened at $500; price drops are bigger and cut deeper.
For Watches of Switzerland in LSE (UK:WOSG), a retailer of high-end watches, a recovery rally is starting above 400p.
Overall, it appears that some retailers are doing better than expected. Their share price trends are continuing a bullish trajectory despite a backdrop of negative macro headlines. That’s something to ponder as we head into the final leg of 2025.
