Edward Sheldon
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I think this UK stock has a lot of potential. Because the company serves two high-growth markets – space and defence.
On the space side, the company is winning huge deals with SpaceX. Last year, for example, it landed a contract with the space firm worth $62.5 million. This is to provide gallium nitride (GaN) E-band products (chips designed to provide higher power, improved efficiency, and greater thermal performance for satellite communications). This deal is expected to deliver ‘material’ revenues in FY2027 and FY2028.
Meanwhile on the defence side, the company has been winning a range of smaller deals. For example, in December, it won a £7 million deal with a major European defence prime for the supply of high-performance active components for a long-standing electronic sensor programme. This side of the business shouldn’t be ignored. With European countries set to ramp up their defence spending in the years ahead, Filtronic could be a major beneficiary.
Now, while this is all very exciting, there are quite a few risks here. One downside to this stock is that the valuation is high. Right now, we are looking at a forward-looking P/E ratio of about 64. That doesn’t leave any room for error.
Another issue is customer concentration. Recently, a lot of revenue growth has been coming from SpaceX. What if it decides to manufacture in-house?
Investors should also be aware that contract wins can be sporadic. So, there could easily be a period where there’s not a lot of activity and investors lose interest, sending the share price down.
Finally, profitability is volatile. For the first half of FY2026, profits were down sharply due to investments in manufacturing capabilities and an increase in staff numbers.
Management was pretty upbeat when it provided a H2 outlook earlier this month, however. “With a record order book, increasing customer diversification and the business now operating at greater scale, we have entered the second half confident of continuing our planned growth,” said CEO Nat Edington.
In light of this upbeat outlook, I think the stock is worth a look. However, I would keep position size small to minimise risk.
I used to own this stock. Luckily, I got out around 80 bucks.
Looking ahead, it’s hard to know where it goes from here.
The stock does look cheap after its recent fall. Non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 came in at $5.31, so the trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is only about eight right now.
But it’s hard to see the stock getting a major upward valuation re-rating in the near term.
One issue is that guidance was dreadful. In its Q4 earnings report, the company said that EPS for 2026 could experience a ‘low-single digit decline’ or be ‘slightly positive’.
Another issue is that Apple has really eaten its lunch and is likely to continue doing so. Whether you’re using Apple Pay or the credit card details drop down feature, it’s just so much easier to pay with Apple than PayPal these days.
Also, as you mention, PayPal is really expensive in a lot of ways (e.g. international money transfer and receiving money). Today, there are a lot of platforms that are far superior from a user perspective (e.g. Wise) – these are likely to continue capturing market share.
Zooming in on broker activity, analysts are slashing their price targets for the stock after the Q4 report. Here are some recent price target downgrades:
HSBC: $72 to $47
Canacord Genuity: $100 to $42
Citi: $60 to $42
TD Cowen: $65 to $48
Looking at these targets, analysts clearly don’t expect a major rebound in the share price anytime soon.
Now, it’s worth noting that the company is bringing in a new CEO, Enrique Lores. The board believes that he can boost company performance.
However, while he has been on the PayPal board for a while, he doesn’t really have a payments background (he was previously CEO of HP). So, a turnaround is far from guaranteed.
Putting this all together, I’m not bullish on PayPal stock at the moment. We could see a small rebound in the share price at some stage, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the stock goes nowhere over the next 12 months.
There are lots of reasons to be bullish on the S&P 500 index right now.
For a start, the tech companies at the top of the index look poised for another year of strong growth. Nvidia, for example, is expected to see 54% revenue growth over the next year.
Secondly, the index is broadening out. Today, the S&P 500 is no longer only about tech – lots of sectors are doing well including Healthcare, Materials, and Industrials.
Third, corporate earnings are expected to grow at a healthy rate in the near term. According to FactSet, S&P 500 earnings are projected to increase 15% this year.
All that said, I expect to see volatility this year. With Donald Trump in the White House, there are going to be plenty of unexpected tweets/announcements that cause investor anxiety – this could put a cap on index growth.
Another issue is interest rates. If these don’t come down as expected, it could lead to stock market volatility.
One other issue to think about is valuations. Currently, the median P/E ratio across the S&P 500 on a forward-looking basis is about 20, which is quite high.
As for how high the index can go in 2026, I’m going to say that it can hit 7,400 at some point this year. That’s about 6% above today’s level.
For what it’s worth, here are some year-end targets from major Wall Street firms:
Goldman Sachs – 7,600
JP Morgan – 7,500
Morgan Stanley – 7,800
Oppenheimer – 8,100
Deutsche Bank – 8,000
Citigroup – 7,700
UBS – 7,700
Bank of America – 7,100
Looking at these targets, the consensus view is that the S&P 500 index is going to have another decent year.
I don’t like to bet against the US market (the S&P 500 index). Because it has a fantastic long-term track record.
However, some indexes that could potentially beat the S&P 500 this year include:
* The S&P Equal Weight index: Late last year, investors started to rotate out of the technology sector and into other sectors such as Financials, Healthcare, and Industrials. If this trend continues in 2026 (I think it might), the S&P 500 Equal Weight index could outperform the S&P 500 (which is heavily weighted to technology stocks).
* The Stoxx Europe 600 index: This European index (which includes UK stocks) has a large weighting to banks and industrials – two sectors that are performing well right now. I think there’s a reasonable chance that it could outperform the S&P 500 this year, especially if US tech stocks underperform.
* MSCI World Healthcare index: Healthcare stocks could be a major beneficiary of the broadening out of the market. These stocks offer a nice mix of growth and defence and right now, the sector is attractively valued.
* S&P GSCI Precious Metals index: This is a commodities index that provides exposure to precious metals (ie gold and silver). Gold and silver are both flying right now due to high levels of geopolitical and economic uncertainty – if this trend continues, this index could do well in 2026.
I think the key for investors this year is asset class, geographic, and sector diversification. Aim to build a portfolio that has exposure to many different asset classes, geographic regions and sectors – this should pay off.
eToro shares have not performed well since the IPO. As I write this, they’re trading at $31 – about 40% below the IPO price of $52.
It’s hard to know exactly why the share price has tanked. I think it’s probably related to a few different factors including:
* Competition: eToro operates in a very competitive industry and it’s up against some very powerful players. Earlier this month, analysts at Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock to ‘neutral’ on the back of competition concerns.
* Robinhood: Rival Robinhood is having a great deal of success right now. I feel like there’s a view in the market that this company is going to be the long-term winner with younger investors. Note that Robinhood has been expanding into Europe recently (eToro’s main market).
* Prediction markets: Prediction markets have taken off recently. eToro doesn’t offer this yet (it’s planning to launch this feature later in 2026).
* Crypto weakness: eToro is a major crypto trading platform. And crypto has been weak recently – Bitcoin is well off its highs. It’s worth noting that interest in Bitcoin has been declining. It seems young investors are focusing on other areas of the financial markets right now (e.g. prediction markets).
* Profitability: eToro’s profit margins are well below the industry average.
Personally, I wouldn’t short the stock. Because the valuation is quite low now. According to Stockopedia, analysts are looking for earnings per share of $2.69 this year. That puts the stock on a forward-looking P/E ratio of just 11.5. I don’t see a lot of downside at that valuation. But I could be wrong.
I think some banks stocks could do well over the next five years. However, I find it hard to get excited about Lloyds – I reckon it may underperform its peers.
One downside to this bank is that it is predominantly UK focused. So, its fortunes are tied to the UK economy, which isn’t exactly firing on all cylinders at the moment.
For 2026, the IMF is projecting UK GDP growth of just 1.3% (versus global growth of 3.1%). UK growth may pick up in the coming years, but I don’t expect growth to be strong – we just don’t have the growth industries (e.g. technology).
Another downside to Lloyds is that it lacks the growth drivers other banks have. Barclays, for example, has a significant investment banking division. So, it can capitalise on IPOs. Other banks have large wealth management divisions so they can capitalise on rising equity markets.
With Lloyds, the story is mainly about UK mortgages. Ultimately, it’s a bit of a one-trick pony.
As for the valuation, the stock looks fully valued to me today. At present, Lloyds is trading on a P/E ratio of about 13 and a price to book value ratio of about 1.3.
So, I don’t think there’s a lot of scope for an upward valuation rerating in the near term. This could limit gains.
Overall, I’m not very bullish on Lloyds taking a five-year view. It could do well if the UK economy booms and it leverages technology to cut costs, however, in my view, there are better bank stocks to buy.
When I last covered the Smarter Web Company, in June, I was quite bearish on it. At the time, I stated that it was a high-risk investment.
Since then, its share price has fallen from around 500p to 33p – a decline of approximately 93%. So, I was right to be bearish on it (hopefully my analysis saved a few investors from getting badly burnt).
Is the stock worth buying at 33p? I’m not convinced.
One of the main reasons this stock saw interest last year was that it offered a way to get Bitcoin exposure in a Stocks and Shares ISA or SIPP. At the time, the FCA had banned crypto ETNs and ETPs for retail investors.
The FCA has since lifted the ban on these products, however. So, UK investors are likely to have many different ways to access crypto-assets in the future, meaning less need for Smarter Web Company and other crypto treasury companies (these companies may find it harder to raise money to buy more Bitcoin in the future).
I will point out that there are some reasons to be bullish here today. Currently, Smarter Web Company owns 2,664 Bitcoins. At today’s Bitcoin price, these Bitcoins are worth about £180 million. Yet the company’s market cap is only around £100 million. So, there could be a value opportunity here.
It’s worth noting that right now, the price of Bitcoin is depressed. If it was to rally again, it would boost the value of the Smarter Web Company’s holdings and probably also its share price. There are no guarantees that Bitcoin will rise in the near term though. Recently, interest in crypto has been declining with Google searches of “Bitcoin” falling dramatically.
In summary, the stock looks more attractive at 33p than when it was trading at 500p. However, I still see it as a high-risk investment.
I’ll give you three of my favourites and a wildcard:
* Nvidia – I expect 2026 to be another strong year for Nvidia. It will be rolling out its next-generation Vera Rubin chips and demand is likely to be high. On the recent Q3 earnings call, the company said that it has visibility to half a trillion dollars in Blackwell and Rubin revenue from the start of this year through the end of calendar year 2026 and that there’s potential upside to this number. It’s worth noting that Nvidia’s share price has come down recently and the stock looks attractively valued as we head towards 2026.
* Amazon – Amazon isn’t getting that much attention as an AI play, however, in the long run, it’s likely to be one of the biggest players in the market. Today, businesses can access a range of AI models and solutions on its cloud platform (AWS) and looking ahead, the company plans to be a one-stop shop for AI solutions (much like its retail platform is a one-stop shop for consumers today). Looking beyond AWS, Amazon is also very active in robotics and self-driving cars. With the valuation near historical lows, I think it’s worth a look.
* Snowflake – This is a data company that helps businesses store and structure their data properly and then apply AI solutions to the data. It’s seeing very strong growth at the moment as businesses (it serves 766 of the Forbes Global 2000) move to get their data sorted and employ AI. Last quarter (Q3), product revenue was up 29%. This stock is volatile as earnings are still small, but I expect it to do well in the years ahead.
* MongoDB – This is my wildcard. MongoDB is a data company that offers a powerful database (Atlas) that simplifies the development of AI applications. Like Snowflake, it’s seeing strong growth at the moment as businesses rush to apply AI to their data. Last quarter, total revenue was up 19% while Atlas revenue was up 30%. This is another higher-risk AI play, but I see a lot of potential here.
Depends what you are looking for but as a growth/quality investor, I like the Blue Whale Growth fund. This is a concentrated, growth-focused global equity fund managed by Stephen Yiu.
Yiu is good at identifying growth themes and capitalising on them. For example, he’s made a ton of money for investors in recent years on the AI buildout theme.
Not only has he made a killing on Nvidia, but he has also done well with stocks like Broadcom, Lam Research, Taiwan Semi, and Vertiv (these stocks were all in the top 10 holdings at the end of November).
In terms of performance, the fund has a really good track record. Since its inception in 2017, it has returned about 220%. That translates to a return of around 15-16% per year.
This year, it returned 25.7% to the end of November. That’s well ahead of the S&P 500 and MSCI ACWI indexes.
I’ll point out that this fund can be quite volatile at times. When there’s market weakness, losses can be magnified due to its growth/technology focus.
In 2022, for example, when the market fell, the fund returned -27.6%. So, it may not be suitable for those seeking capital preservation.
If an investor is seeking long-term growth, however, I see this fund as a nice complement to a standard index tracker fund. It’s structured very differently to the average index tracker and has more growth potential in the long run.
For me it would be Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN).
Why? Well I’d want a company that operates in many different industries (to reduce my risk) and Amazon fits the bill here.
Today, it operates in a range of areas including online shopping, cloud computing, artificial intelligence (including AI chips), digital advertising, digital healthcare, space satellites, robotics, and self-driving cars.
I’d also want a company that has plenty of long-term growth potential. Looking at those industries above, Amazon certainly has this.
Zooming in on the cloud computing industry, it’s set to grow by more than 20% per year between 2024 and 2030 according to analysts at Goldman Sachs (to hit $2 trillion). Amazon is well placed to capitalise on this growth given that it’s the biggest player in the industry.
It’s worth noting here that Amazon has plans to be a one-stop shop for AI in the future. In the same way that it offers a comprehensive retail shopping platform for consumers today, it plans to offer a comprehensive AI platform for businesses in which all kinds of AI tools are available.
Additionally, I’d want a company that has strong financials and Amazon fits the bill here. This is a company with a strong balance sheet, a high return on equity, and rising profits.
One other thing I like about this stock is the valuation. Currently, the P/E ratio is under 30 and near a historical low.
Put all this together and the investment case looks pretty compelling, in my view.
I can think of a few reasons. For a start, it has been very cold in parts of the US recently. I was over in Minnesota for Thanksgiving and it was -10 deg celcius or colder on many days. We also got a ton of snow, which isn’t that common for that time of year. That kind of weather is going to increase demand for natural gas significantly due to the fact that it is used for heating. Note that gas storage drawdowns around then were larger than expected. For example, a report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on 20 November showed a drawdown of -14 billion cubic feet, surpassing the expected reduction of -12 billion cubic feet.
Another factor at play is US exports. Recently, the US has been shipping record amounts of natural gas overseas. Europe has been a dominant buyer of US liquified natural gas (LNG) due to the fact that it is moving away from Russian pipeline gas. Here, countries like the Netherlands, France, Spain, and the UK have all been buying. Countries in Asia and Latin America have also been buyers of the commodity. This has left less of a cushion for US domestic needs. As a result, supply and demand dynamics have pushed prices up.
It’s worth noting that natural prices have come down a little bit recently. Milder US weather forecasts for the Christmas period and less storage drawdown than expected in the week to 28th November have been two drivers of the weakness.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the FTSE 100 hit 10,000 in 2026. Here are five reasons why:
* We’re in the midst of a powerful bull market in global equities right now. I think there’s a decent chance this bull market will continue in 2026 as economic growth is solid and corporate earnings are rising.
* The Footsie’s valuation isn’t that high at the moment. Currently, the median forward-looking price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio across the index is 13.3, according to Stockopedia. That compares to 18.4 for the S&P 500 index.
* Many stocks in the index with large weightings still look good value to me. Some examples here include HSBC, GSK, and Barclays, which are all trading on P/E ratios of 10 or less.
* To get to 10,000, the index would only need to rise around 5% from here. I think that the Footsie is capable of producing that kind of gain at some stage during the year.
* After a period of weakness, the Healthcare sector has started to perform recently. A continuation of this trend should help the Footsie as AstraZeneca is the largest weighting in the index and GSK also has a decent weighting.
Of course, there are no guarantees that the FTSE 100 will hit 10,000 next year. 2025 has been a strong year for the index so we could potentially see a period of consolidation next year where the index trades sideways. I’m optimistic that it will hit 10,000 at some stage though.
My gut feeling is that the share price won’t hit £1 in 2025. Why? There are a few reasons:
* The valuation looks pretty full right now. Currently, analysts expect earnings of 7.33p per share from Lloyds this year. That puts the bank’s P/E ratio at 12. For a domestic bank that has minimal exposure to higher growth areas of banking such as wealth management, investment banking, and trading, that multiple is high. Barclays and HSBC trade at 9.2 and 9.9 times this year’s forecast earnings. So, Lloyds is trading at a premium to these banks. Note that the average price target is 97p. So, analysts don’t expect to see £1 in the near term.
* Key/round numbers often act as a form of ‘resistance’ for a share price. This is technical analysis 101. I believe we’re likely to see that here with £1. What I think will happen is that near £1, a lot of investors will look to take profits. This will put pressure on the share price and stop it from breaching the £1 mark. It’s worth pointing out that Lloyds’ share price has risen a lot in 2025 – year to date it’s up 60%+. After that kind of gain, some profit taking is to be expected.
* The UK Budget (to be announced on 26 November) threatens to throw up a few negatives for UK banks. Recently, there has been talk of higher taxes on banks, which could reduce profitability.
* Those looking for income have many superior options today. Right now, Lloyds shares yield less than 4%.
Now, I’m not saying that Lloyds shares can’t keep rising in the medium term. I just think that £1 (more than 10% higher than the share price today) is unlikely in 2025.
