Darren Sinden
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I think the 5-year chart of PayPal Holdings tells you what you need to know about the stock and its prospects.
Back in July 2021 they were trading around $311.00 per share. Yesterday they closed at $41.70, down by -20.31% the biggest one day fall in the name for 4-years, as the company missed Wall Street’s forecast for Q4 2025 earnings, and announced that it was appointing a new CEO to replace Alex Chriss, who was only appointed in 2023. But who failed to implement a turnaround plan in that time.
HP Inc CEO Enrique Lores will take over from Mr Chriss on March 1st.
The stock is not without hope however, with nearly $32.0 billion in annual sales and 5-year earnings and revenue growth at 89.80% and 78.92% respectively. Whilst profit margins sit at +13.0%.
And following yesterdays fall the stocks market cap sits at a -$3.0 billion discount to its Enterprise Value.
Most telling of all though is the fact the stock has underperformed the S&P 500 by -68.81% over 12 months.
There is potential for a turnaround in the business, which could also be target for activists or PE investors, looking to unlock shareholder value. Which is often achieved through a combination of cost cutting, streamlining and disposals.
Howard Marks, CEO of Oaktree Capital Management, which runs around US$218.0 billion wrote a well publicises article on S&P returns. this time last year. In the note he looked at the correlation between current S&P 500 PE ratios and future 10-year returns in the index. the data. which stretched back 27 years, suggested that:
“When people bought the S&P at p/e ratios in line with today’s multiple of 22, they always earned ten-year returns between plus 2% and minus 2%.”
The current FWD PE for the index is 22.1 times earnings and the index itself is up by just +1.02% year to date.
My honest opinion is that there is just too much going on at a macro level to be making longer term predictions about the index performance, over the balance of the year. If issues such as Greenland, the reprise of Trump Tariffs, and possibility of conflict with Iran resolve themselves in the next couple of months.
Then we could see another rally, but without that, I am thinking that we will see a year of mediocre/subpar returns from the S&P 500.
However, if January is anything to go by, it will be a very good year for stock picking and tactical trading.
I think there are a number of reasons for the underperformance of eToro’s stock since it IPO’d.
However, it seems to me that the main factors behind the share price fall are geographic and cultural differences.
I say that because, unlike rivals such as Robinhood eToro’s clients base is international rather than US focused. Ss of the end of 2024 just 10.0% of eToro’s clients were in the US. What’s more retail OTC trading, which still makes up a large portion of eToro’s turnover is somewhat alien to US investors, not least because over-the-counter trading in the US is off limits to most retail clients.
A downturn in the crypto markets, which kicked off in August last year can also be blamed. It’s my understanding that crypto trading is a higher margin business for the firm so a prolonged downturn, in a largely sentiment driven asset class, would likely dent the firms revenues. And that could be a factor behind the recent news of headcount reduction.
For eToro to shine I think it will need to demonstrate that it’s growing its US business, and show that it can profitably participate in on exchange trading, particularly in growth areas like OTDE options.
US markets didn’t perform particularly well in 2025 for example, over the last 12 months the S&P 500 was up by +16.92%. However, the Spanish Ibex 35 posted gains of almost +50.0% in that 12 month period and several smaller European indices did even better. Slovenia’s SBITOP Index is up 5+4.0% over the last year, but even that is knocked into a cocked hat by the gain seen in the Euro Stoxx Banks Index that was was up 75.37$ during the last 12 months.
If we are looking for markets that could outperform in 2026, year to date gains might provide an indicator. Japan’s Nikkei 225 is up by +8.25% in 2026 already and Bulgaria’s SOFIX index has risen by an impressive +18.62 YTD.
And we shouldn’t over look South Korea where the Kospi Composite Index, which rose by some +90.0% in 2025, has added +8.89% since the turn of the year.
Goldman Sachs shared a video this week setting out its view on South Korean equity indices on which they are bullish. The bank cites the countries exposure to AI and silicon chips, improving corporate governance what’s more Goldman flags that some 70% of Korean stocks, are trading below one times book value compared to less than 40.0% for the constituents of Japan’s topic index.
Retail investors in the UK wont find it easy to trade in individual Korean stocks, however, the are ETFs that track South Korean stocks. For example the iShares plc MSCI Korea UCITS ETF (Dist) which trades under the ticker IKOR.L, which rose by 88.90% over the last year and is up 6.55% ytd.
In conclusion then, there are markets that outperformed the US significantly in 2025 and there are several contenders that may repeat the trick in 2026.
This news might benefit Smarter Web’s stock price.
“MSTR +4.4% in the pre market as MSCI announces it will not exclude digital asset treasury cos from MSCI Indexes.”
This looks like a deceptively easy question on the face of it, after all the stock returned +80.65% over the last 12 months, according to data from Barchart.com.
However the more I dig into the question the more complex it becomes. And that’s because we have to look away from the performance data and ratios, and consider the bigger picture.
Lloyds is almost 100% exposed to the UK in revenue terms, true it enjoys significant market share in key sectors such as mortgage lending. However looking at the state of the UK housing market, and economy, that could just as easily be a poison chalice as much as a holy grail for the bank.
House building is slowing dramatically in the UK, that despite the Labour govts goal of building 1.50 million new homes in the current parliament.
The so called mansion tax and the initial proposal about levying IHT on large family farms shows that this government sees private property as potential cash cow.
And having drunk from the well once, it’s highly likely they will come back for another swig.
Income tax was of course introduced as a temporary measure to help fund the Napoleonic wars but 200 years (and more) later its still here.
And though, Rachel Reeves resisted the temptation to place additional surcharges on bank profits in November, will she be able to resist low hanging fruit like that in future?
The UK economy is currently flatlining in GDP terms. The jury is still out on inflation, and unemployment is on the rise. None of which will help decidedly shaky looking UK finances, and neither is it bullish for the domestic economy on which Lloyds relies.
Returning to Lloyds historic performance and key ratios: 5 year revenue growth at the bank come in at just +0.54% whilst dividend growth over that period is negative at -2.31%.
Provisions against motor finance compensation claims have dragged YoY and QoQ EPS growth into negative territory as well, though over 5-years earning have grown by almost +13.0% and the bank currently enjoys 20.0% profit margin.
Lloyds needs to grow its top line, because cost cutting and reductions in head count and high street branches, can only carry the bank so far. It seems unlikely that it could win significant market share without the demise of a competitor, and Santander’s recent purchase of TSB suggests that’s unlikely.
I think the best that Lloyds can hope for is the status quo and given that I would refer to own a UJK bank with overseas exposure such as Barclays.
Bitcoin Treasury companies are not something I can warm to I am afraid. You could have made a case for them for them as a way for UK retail clients to gain exposure to bitcoin, via the stock market. However, now that UK private clients can trade in Crypto ETNs that argument has lost its lustre.
Smarter Web and its peers are only as good as the price of Bitcoin and the appetite among investors for the next fund raising round. To date the appetite has been good but I wonder what happens if and when a Bitcoin Treasury company tries to raise fresh cash in a crypto downturn?
Having traded at 500p at the 2025 peak, some may argue that at 33.0p Smarter Web are cheap but for that logic to apply you need to believe they cant go substantially lower which I don’t.
As an analyst once said about Ratner’s the jeweller ” cant recommend a purchase ”
Despite all the hyperbole on Instagram its not clear to me that anyone is making money directly from AI chat bots and agents or when that may change. I have likened the “AI boom” to a gold rush and as with a real world gold rush the people who do best are the ones selling picks and shovels to the miners.
I haven’t seen anything to change my mind in this regard, so I am inclined to look at the supply chain and that’s quite a broad-church and includes the lies of Sandisk SNDK US and Micron MU US in the memory space. Memory is an essential component of AI chips.
Amphenol APH US which makes and supplies connectors, plugs wiring etc that link servers together in data centres. Schneider Electric SU FP which is involved in Data centre wiring and fit out. if you are looking for something thats got a bit of meme stock stock about but with AI / data centre exposure then Bloom Energy BE US, could be for you. Bloom offers alternative power solutions in the form of industrial scale hydrogen fuels cells.
Fund investing is a thorny subject the sad truth is that few actively managed funds will beat their benchmarks, in any given year and fewer still will manage to do that on a consistent basis.
Against that when you buy a fund you are outsourcing the management of your money to an expert/team of experts, in their field. And that appeals to many investors, who don’t have the time, inclination or expertise to do this for themselves.
That’s particularly true when it comes to niche areas such as Bonds and Emerging Markets.
Buying an index tracker, especially a low cost one that tracks US blue chip equities has been something of a no brainier post covid. However, the magnificent 7 haven’t really performed in 2025. And if we look at the markets that produced the biggest bang for buck this year (in US$ terms) then Korea, Greece, Spain, South Africa, Mexico, Italy and Brazil, all knocked the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, in to a cocked hat.
in terms of sector and asset class performance Banks, Telecoms. precious metals and the Swiss franc were among the top performers. And if the US dollar remains weak (dollar index is well below 100 and is down -9.48% year to date) then it seems likely to me that these trends could continue into 2026.
If you are looking for a contrarian trade/fund in which to park some of your portfolio then Indian Equities have underperformed their EM and DM counterparts, and remain just above their 200 D moving average.
Closer to home France may present an opportunity with French stocks having lagged peers in Germany, Spain and Italy during 2025.
To get the most from these ideas spending some time researching fund mangers with expertise in the sectors and geographies is probably a good use of your time.
This is a great question and my answer is timely and topical, because my stock pick is Broadcom AVGO US. A $1.95 trillion designer, developer and supplier of semiconductors.
Broadcom’s stock price has risen consistently in recent times its added +630.0% in the last three years for example. But its also delivered on an earnings front with 5 year revenue growth of +128.23%, five year Earnings growth of 113.22%, and five year dividend growth of +99.06%.
Broadcom reported earnings after the close last night(11/12/25)beating on both the top and bottom lines and both operating and free cash flow margins were higher, when compared to last year.
True the stock price sold off in the post market, but to my mind a dip or pull back could present an attractive entry point.
Going forward the markets focus will be on the monetization of Broadcom’s recent deal with Google – for whom it will help manufacture TPU chips, designed to compet5e directly with Nvidia’s AI offerings.
Broadcom confirmed yesterday that Anthropic is among the first customers for the new TPUS the owner of
Claude placed an Order worth $10.0 bln back in September, and has followed that up with a new order worth $11.0 bln.
Broadcom has a lot to shoot for here, and it must deliver on this potential, if it is to keep traders happy. However the firms track record with hardware is excellent, so I am not expecting too many issues, barring any unforeseen problems at TSMCs foundries.
US Natural Gas prices have added +11.47% over the last month and are up +33.10% over the year to date. Though prices are well off of the peak seen on December 5th. In fact Jan 26 futures- the current front month contract are some -12.0% below the spike seen in the first week of December.
It’s not uncommon for natural gas prices to spike higher in winter months, particularly if the meteorologists forecast a cold snap.
Gas prices are sensitive to temperature changes simply because when its cold people tun their heating up. Conversely prices drop if the weather forecasters point to milder temperatures.
And that’s what happened on Monday
“Jan Nat-Gas prices plunged on Monday after updated weather forecasts showed US temperatures warming mid-month, potentially curbing Nat-Gas heating demand. Forecaster Atmospheric G2 said that the forecast shifted slightly colder over he eastern and southern US for December 18-22, but noticeably warmer elsewhere. Also, other weather models support a broad-scale warmer risk as cold air is confined to Canada.” Barchart.com
From a seasonal standpoint December is a flat month, on average for Nat Gas prices with January Futures losing a little over -0.360%.
That contrasts sharply with the performance of UNG the US Natural Gas Fund, an ETF that tracks the price of natural gas futures. UNG experiences an average decline of -8.13% in December, and has produced negative returns in the last month of the year 68.75% of the time, over the last 15 years.
The differential comes about because of the holdings that UNG has, and the shape the Natural Gas futures curve for example May 2026 futures trade at around $3.75 versus $4.84 for January.
If you want to trade Natural Gas or Nat Gas related equities then it make sense to keep and eye on US/ North American weather forecasts and temperatures.
Lloyds Banking Group has come within a whisper of trading at £1.00 in recent sessions, posting a high of 95.861p.
So, will one of the UKs most widely traded and owned shares be able to reach the round number, and what would it take to get it there?
Lloyds has comfortably outperformed the FTSE 100 so far this year. Its shares have risen by 65.30% as of the time of writing, compared to a +16.71% gain for the blue-chip index.
Over 52 weeks, Lloyds’ stock has beaten all of the large UK banks apart from Standard Chartered, whose +69.50% gains eclipse the +61.00% per cent gain at Lloyds.
Lloyds Banking is integral to parts of the UK economy, for example, the bank processes1 in 4 card payments made in the country, and it’s also the largest mortgage lender in Britain, with a 20.0% market share, lending some £47.0 billion to homeowners in 2024.
That’s the good news.
The bad news is that once again the Bank’s past conduct has come back to haunt it once more.
This time it’s the payment of undisclosed commissions, to car dealers, who arranged motor finance for their customers, through Lloyds Bank and its subsidiaries.
Lloyds isn’t alone in this. Santander, Close Brothers and the finance arms of several motor manufacturers are also implicated.
However, because Lloyds was a very active lender in the space, it now faces the very real possibility of paying compensation to car owners, who used Lloyds finance to buy their vehicle .
The FCA, the courts and the lenders are still wrangling about the size of the compensation and the time scale for payments. Lloyds was sufficiently concerned to make a further £800 million provision against them. Which meant that Q3 2025 profits were down by around -33.0%. when compared to Q3 2024.
For now at least the Bank England isn’t cutting UK base rates further, and that should help Lloyds earnings going forward.
The Chancellor of the Exchequer is alsoreported to have ruled out a further levy or surcharge on bank profits as part of her late November Budget. If the UK budget on November 26th isn’t as unfriendly as it’s been painted, then we might see a relief rally in UK equities.
And, given that Lloyds Banking shares have posted 14 new highs over the last month, it seems plausible that they could test to £1.00 under those circumstances.
However, without that, we may have to wait for a favourable resolution in the Auto finance scandal, to act as positive catalyst for the share price.
When it comes to the FTSE 100 Index will it, or won’t it reach 10,000? Is the question on most investors’ minds.
As I type we are some 450 points or approximately -5.0% beneath that round number.
The index has added +15.39% year to date, so we would need to see that jump by+ 30.0% to hit the target, and that might be asking too much before year end.
On a five year view the index has rallied +50.0% and to some extent the OoVID 19 downturn has faded from our memory.
If we are to see the index at, and above 10,000 I think it’s more likely to happen in 2026.
And the move may be driven by external factors
Let’s not forget that 70.0% or more of FTSE 100 revenues are generated abroad and not in the UK. Stocks that have performed well in the index over the last 52 weeks included silver miner Fresnilo +258.0%, which has benefited from a weak dollar, combined with fears about global inflation, and excessive national debt levels.
That said, some businesses that make their money in the domestic economy have also fared well, with retailer Next and bankers Natwest Group, up by +47.0% and +46.0% respectively.
There is also a certain amount of survivorship bias in the FTSE 100 index, whose constituents are reviewed on a quarterly basis.
Weak links such as WPP -61.0% and B&M European Value Retail down -50.71%, could well find themselves demoted in the December reshuffle.
From an investors perspective the +3.18% dividend yield offered by the FTSE 100 remains attractive.
FTSE 100 dividends make up the bulk of the £24.60 billion, paid out by uk companies in Q3 2025.
And despite concerns about the health of both the domestic and global economies, we saw dividend increases in 17 out 21 uk sectors in Q3 year over year ,with 8 out of every10 dividend payers, either holding or increasing their dividend.
Overall then there are reasons to be optimistic about the prospects of the FTSE 100.
However there is an elephant in the room in the shape of the forthcoming UK budget.The biggest risk from which would be the introduction of measures that hurt investor confidence.
Particularly, if those measures spook the bond markets ,drive up borrowing costs, and perhaps precipitate a fiscal crisis in the UK.
If only we had a crystal ball that allowed us to see into the future and to time the market to our advantage.
Sadly, we don't have that ability, but what we do have are history and statistics to look back on.
The numbers tell us that the longer we are in the market, the lower the chance of realising a loss on our investment, simply because over time markets tend to go up.
Statistics don’t tell the whole story, and it's also true to say that everyone's financial circumstances are different, but by and large, most retail investors will be better off by making regular contributions/investments into a diversified portfolio, and leaving that to grow over time rather than trying to identify the optimum point at which to take the plunge.
Though, of course, we need to bear in mind that past returns are no guarantee of future performance.
If you are looking to trade the market rather than invest, then it's a slightly different story.
Buying the dip has been a profitable strategy over the last 5 years and beyond, and given that September has the worst-performing month in the S&P 500 on average since 1928, there may be an opportunity to do so again.
However, we will need to consider the context of any dip and its causes, and the prospects for a rebound before doing so. And here I am thinking of the influence and performance of the Magnificent 7 stocks in the US, which are so dominant in driving market sentiment.
You can find more analysis of the markets here:https://goodmoneyguide.com/analysis/
I hadn’t come across this stock before your post, and I have to say that its performance has been impressive to say the least.
In fact, much more so than its underlying business of making components for LCD monitors in China would suggest is warranted.
Clearly, something else is going on here that the wider market is not privy to.
It sounds as though you are under no illusions about this one and are keeping a watching brief.
Whilst it’s going up on good volume, that’s probably the right way to be.
However, stocks like this have a nasty habit of reversing without much warning, so top slicing your position on the way up or taking out the original investment you put in, if you haven’t done so already, might also be worth considering.
This is not investment advice, always do your own research.
