Can The FTSE 100 Reach 10,000?

When it comes to the FTSE 100 Index will it, or won’t it reach 10,000? Is the question on most investors’ minds.

As I type we are some 450 points or approximately -5.0% beneath that round number.

The index has added +15.39% year to date, so we would need to see that jump by+ 30.0% to hit the target, and that might be asking too much before year end.

On a five year view the index has rallied +50.0% and to some extent the OoVID 19 downturn has faded from our memory.

If we are to see the index at, and above 10,000 I think it’s more likely to happen in 2026.

And the move may be driven by external factors

Let’s not forget that 70.0% or more of FTSE 100 revenues are generated abroad and not in the UK. Stocks that have performed well in the index over the last 52 weeks included silver miner Fresnilo +258.0%, which has benefited from a weak dollar, combined with fears about global inflation, and excessive national debt levels.

That said, some businesses that make their money in the domestic economy have also fared well, with retailer Next and bankers Natwest Group, up by +47.0% and +46.0% respectively.

There is also a certain amount of survivorship bias in the FTSE 100 index, whose constituents are reviewed on a quarterly basis.

Weak links such as WPP -61.0% and B&M European Value Retail down -50.71%, could well find themselves demoted in the December reshuffle.

From an investors perspective the +3.18% dividend yield offered by the FTSE 100 remains attractive.

FTSE 100 dividends make up the bulk of the £24.60 billion, paid out by uk companies in Q3 2025.

And despite concerns about the health of both the domestic and global economies, we saw dividend increases in 17 out 21 uk sectors in Q3 year over year ,with 8 out of every10 dividend payers, either holding or increasing their dividend.

Overall then there are reasons to be optimistic about the prospects of the FTSE 100.

However there is an elephant in the room in the shape of the forthcoming UK budget.The biggest risk from which would be the introduction of measures that hurt investor confidence.

Particularly, if those measures spook the bond markets ,drive up borrowing costs, and perhaps precipitate a fiscal crisis in the UK.

Many good points made by Sheldon and Darren.

Will FTSE 100 hit 10,000? Chances are high – but not 100 percent – that the UK large-cap index will hit that five-digit mark sometime next year.

The more important question, though, is this: Will it stay there?

Chartwise, the index is in a strong position. The upside breakout this year is the first decisive, upward move in decades.

When a financial instrument rallies to new price highs, further gains are likely. This is the well-known “momentum effect” in stock markets. Strength begets strength.

If FTSE 100 ends 2026 in the black, it will the be the sixth annual positive return since 2021. This is quite a remarkable run.

Will we see a pullback below 10K once the Footsie reaches that milestone? That is also a possibility. Profit taking, an economic slowdown, or a crash in the AI bubble in 2026 – are all negative factors that may tank UK stock prices over the next 12 months.

For now, the base case is that FTSE 100 will continue to drift upwards, to new highs, over the medium term. Whether the index can close with another blue candle is harder to say.